The election date has finally been set for 14 May 2023 and the wheels are turning. The lists of candidates for the presidency and parliament will be determined and finalized after submission to the YSK. It was already clear that the presidential candidate of the People's Alliance would be Erdoğan. The Nation Alliance announced its candidate after a painful birth. Kılıçdaroğlu is the joint presidential candidate of the Nation Alliance, as expected. The objections of the İYİ Party and even Akşener's angry statement after leaving the table did not stop Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy. The integration of İmamoğlu and Yavaş into the Nation Alliance’s governmental plans as vice presidents was a condition for her return and actually strengthened Kılıçdaroğlu's position, ending the 'best candidate' debate, at least within the Nation Alliance.

Did the introduction of Yavaş and İmamoğlu really increase the chances of Kılıçdaroğlu winning the election? Or did the crisis weaken the Nation Alliance, and therefore his candidacy? Has trust in Akşener and the Nation Alliance been affected by the divisions that emerged just weeks away from the elections?

Turkey's Pulse seeks answers to these questions.

Turkey is now focused on the elections. Once the candidates are announced, the main question is the result of the presidential race. It is not yet certain whether the election will be just between two alliance candidates or whether multiple candidates, including the HDP, will run. If so, will the election go to a second round or will it end in the first? No matter how many candidates stand, it seems clear that the main race will be between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu.

Which of these two will win? Who is ahead? Who has momentum? You will find the answers to these questions in Turkey's Pulse.

In this issue, we also present a detailed election analysis that examines many of the factors that will affect the outcome.

What is the trend of voting for Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu? How are patterns shifting? What is the voting potential of the Nation Alliance and the People's Alliance? How has voter confidence in these two alliances changed recently? Is Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu expected to win? How has this expectation changed? Whoever gets elected, will the economy improve? Will there be election fraud? Are coalitions good or bad?

The questions are legion and each is important. They make it possible for us to predict the possible outcomes of the elections. With voting just weeks away, Turkey's Pulse is here with a reference politics file.

Also, we cover two small but important topics: football and women's issues. We think you will find them interesting...

The March Turkey's Pulse survey was carried out using the stratified sampling and weighting method on 1,999 people in 28 provinces based on the 26 regions of Turkey's NUTS 2 system between March 11 and 14, 2023. The survey used CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) methodology with a margin error of 2.15 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.

Margin of Error: Overall: +/- 2.15, AKP: +/- 3.57, CHP: +/- 4.90, MHP: +/- 7.0, HDP: +/- 6.82, İYİ Party: +/- 7.41